What is luck?

Just luck?

I recently read a short blog post by Seth Godin on luck. It stuck with me. It made me wonder about the role of luck, chance events, serendipitous moments in my life that have led me to where I am, and if they didn’t happen  - where would I be? What if I had been more conscious about seeking to create luck? Where could I be? Godin’s conclusion was - “luck may not be a strategy, but setting yourself up to be lucky might be.”

Ofcourse so much of the startup world is about luck. Building successful startups, and for investors, picking the winners. What is the percentage of luck, and what is the percentage of skill? 

There were countless social networks before Facebook “won”. Was that because Zuckerberg was simply lucky? Did he do anything to earn that luck? Was Justin Bieber just lucky to have made it out of all the young singers in 2008? Is Warren Buffet the luckiest investor of all time, and millions of others just lack his wild fortune? What about the luck of Switzerland knocking the World Champions France out of the Euros?

Did they do anything to earn that luck? It would probably be a stretch to believe they formally systemized their luck, but I’d argue that there are things we can do to optimize the chances of getting lucky.

Annie Duke, poker champion, author, genius etc says “The quality of our life depends on the decisions we make plus luck”. In poker, we are dealt a hand. That initial hand is fully based on luck, but that is not in a vacuum. That hand is in context of the hands your opponents may have, then in context of the bets on the table, then in the context of the cards that come onto the table as part of the flop, turn, river. A lot of context and variables. These variables lead to dynamic situations, and dynamic situations require good decision-making. As each layer of context is added, there is more opportunity for quality of decisions to either compensate for a lack of luck, or to increase chances of attracting luck.

Good decisions beget luck.

Zuckerberg was at Harvard; a breeding ground for network effects. Put himself in the right place. Heightened his odds of getting lucky.

Bieber exhibited his singing on Youtube in a time when the platform was experiencing exponential growth. Put himself in the right place. Heightened his odds of getting lucky.

Buffet remained disciplined and stuck to his investment thesis in a field where emotions sway the vast majority. Put himself in the right place. Heightened his odds of getting lucky.

Switzerland won on penalties, where player quality becomes neutralized. Put themselves in the right place. Heightened their odds of getting lucky.

“Luck is a tactic. An unpredictable one, sure, but if it works, it works. A useful strategy might be: I’m going to establish a pattern of resilience and apply information and testing to discover what works. And one of the tactics to support that strategy could be showing up in places where luck can help me out. If I can persist long enough, I’ll get lucky.” From Seth Godin’s post. 

If we do the right things. If we persist long enough. We’ll get lucky.

Putting ourselves in the right places is an interesting one. Something we have to be very intentional about. Places where we are exposed to opportunities that we want. Where there is access. A founder who seeks funding would be better geographically placed in Silicon Valley or London, that they would in Sudan or Sri Lanka. An actor seeking a big break is better placed in Los Angeles than Latvia. An aspiring software engineer is better placed in a tech company than in a fashion store. I attended a workshop the other day led by Henning Piezunka, and he said something that really struck a chord with me in speaking about Venture Capital and Angel investing - having access to great deals is more important than the skill of being able to evaluate deals. He argued that we should spend more time getting in a position where the pool of startups available to invest in is top quality, because then you’re allowed more margin for error. If you have a terrible pool to choose from, excellent ability to evaluate a startup is broadly, well, useless. 

We need to give ourselves access to top opportunities.
Put ourselves in the right places. Be conscious about it.

How do you want to be lucky?
Is there an area in your life where you crave that luck?
Is there something intentional that could be done to put yourself in that position?