Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform, pause or reflect. - Mark Twain
The gold rush. Acting on the side of the majority.
FOMO. Consensus…
Whatever you want to call it.
Nobody judges the person going for the gold rush, even if they’re wrong. Nobody judges the person buying Tesla at the top of the share price, even if they're wrong.
Consensus-decision making is a safety blanket that’s not going to change the world. Sheltered from criticism of others.
Consensus decisions don't put you in the spotlight. You don't get questioned. No justification at all needed. Consensus decision-making prioritizes short term perceptions of others, and a desire to not be left out, or to miss out.
Non-consensus decisions however…
They need a vision, a justification. Based on profound personal conviction.
To be non-consensus in a sea of consensus thinking prioritizes long-term impact, over short term perception of others.
Being bold on non-consensus beliefs gives the chance of adding high value in the long term versus consensus-beliefs adding low value in the short term.
To the founders - we don't need another food delivery app or grocery delivery app. We don't need another 6/10 pizzeria on a busy restaurant street. We don't need another startup aiming to be 10% better than a wildly competitive market because the consensus is that there is a market for that product.
We need something 10x better. We need you to take a risk on being non-consensus and wrong. We need you to take the risk of looking like a fool with the chance of spectacular failure. In order to solve the climate crisis, in order to solve food insecurity, we need you to put short term popularity on the line for the tiny chance of being non-consensus and right. That's who history will remember.
To build a product or service the world didn't know it needed, until it did know.
To the investors - why join the grocery delivery gold rush? Founders with non-consensus visions of the world need backers who have a similar boldness to stand out from the pack and risk it all. The power law of investing applies to the non-consensus opportunities far more than consensus. You won't make 100x on the startup that everyone knows is going to be a success - because there will be 1000 other startups doing the same thing. You may make 100x on the idea that looks a little crazy to the majority right now - less competition to get into the deal, less competition in the market, avoid the gold rush. A true visionary founder sees the future and you will be backing that person. You may be wrong and you may have to account to LPs and yourself, but if you stick to your principles, your winner will offset all the losses many times over.
To the university students - consensus-decisions for you could be taking the step to become a doctor, lawyer, accountant, engineer. Good job, you'll earn well, you'll be content. If you have a fire inside of you to do something non-consensus like becoming an artist, a musician, a policeman, a founder, a producer... You may be wrong. But if you're right, you'll be truly happy and create real utility and value for others.. possibly leaving a legacy.
To reiterate, it takes immense courage to make non-consensus decisions in the face of a world of consensus. And a word of caution - don’t be a contrarian for the sake of it. It takes intense personal conviction and logic behind your ideas to travel the path less travelled.
Solve real problems in the world. Move the world forward.
