Thursday, December 30, 2021

2022 Trends: My Shameless Predictions

I did this last year, and it was fun. That’s what predictions are all about, right? Having a bit of fun, making wildly speculative guesses based on macro trends, and getting 1 out of 10 right. I met another 500+ startups in 2021, and for me, it’s a nice exercise in consolidating the meetings and readings from the last year into a few bullet points. It’s fun to look back to see how some trends accelerate much quicker than expected, and how some are actually years off. Last year, I anticipated ‘the year of psilocybin’ and a massive leap for social e-commerce in the West - but now, it feels like those are still a way off. 

I go again, and as ever, ranging from the mildly obvious to the ludicrously speculative, to be taken with a NBA-player-hand-size punch (definitely not a pinch) of salt.

  • The rise of the Software Engineer

There are currently only 27 million software engineers in the world. For context, there are around 80 million+ teachers. From the mobile device in our hand, the email that we send a client, the game we play in the evening, the commute home, the Amazon delivery we eagerly anticipate, to the way we store our money, and just about everything in between, software engineers are literally building our future. 2022 will see a sharp rise in the programmes to upskill people into the developer space - see HyperionDev as great example of this. Not everyone wants to learn to code ofcourse, so No-low code platforms will take a massive stride into mainstream consciousness to allow idiots like myself to build something that people could actually use - see Bubble as example.



  • NFTs become useful

Unless you’ve become a millionaire from them, I’m sure you’re getting mildly annoyed by seeing people getting so irrationally excited about pictures of a mutant ape shooting a laser-beam from his one eye (only $3.6m to earn this beauty). It’s absurd.


But, every game-changing technology starts off looking absurd and a little useless.


2022 will be the year of NFTs becoming digital pieces of ownership with utility. Songs, event tickets, in-game purchases will be the initial progression. We’ll see more of Twitter, Facebook and Instagram embracing NFTs as part of social status and even community building. Influencers will get more and more involved and will attach their brand to NFT projects, possibly building a community dedicated to a social cause, or to give first access to fan content -  Hasbullah and Justin Bieber have created their own collections already. I warn you - It will get more irritating and more useless in the mainstream view before it gets better - there will be boom and bust cycles, but behind the scenes, there will be real life use cases emerging that will move the world forward.   



  • You'll [nearly] have your first VR team meeting

Last year I said that AR and VR are 2-3 years off. 2021 took a much bigger stride than I expected. It may be as a result of the big year web3 had in 2021 and Facebook’s rebrand to Meta. Omicron is a key catalyst for this too. Children who can’t yet talk are talking about “the metaverse”, and VR is now a big winner. Oculus was #1 app download in US for Christmas (and top 5 in 14 different countries) and the Quest 2 has finally made at-home VR a fun and high quality experience. The ability to play table tennis or poker with friends from around the world while chatting to their avatars and highly realistic physics is a mega step forward. VR won't quite be ready to be an integrated factor in your work life, but it won't be far away (think 2023-2024). It won’t all be at home, yet, either - people crave IRL activities with friends more than ever - we’re willing to pay £30 to throw axes at a wall (bizarrely enjoyable), but we're not all ready to spend £250 on an Oculus Quest for home use. Experiences like Otherworld in the UK will be the go-to VR experience with friends on a fun night out (also saving you from inadvertently punching your window at home while doing VR boxing). 



  • You’ll consider naming your dog DAO because you'll hear the word so often

DAOs - Decentralized Autonomous Organizations - These are communities in which decisions get made bottom-up, organized around a specific set of rules which are set by smart contracts enforced on a blockchain. The communities engage on a discussion tool like Discord, have a common set of values and a common purpose like an ordinary organization, and typically have a pooled budget with which to enforce the vision of the community. Each DAO has its own mission, and smart contracts which determine the set of rules. Remember the news about Constitution DAO? They had the purpose of pooling funds together (>$41m) to “put the Constitution in the hands of The People” by seeking to buy a rare first printing of the U.S. Constitution during a Sotheby's auction. We have only scratched the surface of what type of DAOs we’ll see - it may not be in 2022 - but the future will see Limited Companies take the philosophical view of starting as DAOs which are entirely bottom-up and employee driven. In the short term, I believe 2022 will see early iterations of Venture Capital DAOs, and modern NGOs with people from around the world who want to solve big problems and want to be directly responsible for how the money is spent. 


  • B2B and B2C Sustainability platforms flourishing

There will increased focus (and increased pressure) in 2022 from early stage startups all the way to mega corporations to show off their sustainability credentials, and proving that they’re on a path to carbon neutral / carbon negative. Platforms like Ecologi, Earthly, Treeapp and Pawprint will be excellently poised to help companies with this, and will see strong growth in 2022


  • Play to Earn Games will hit mainstream

Axie Infinity was the pioneer and winner of Play To Earn in 2021. They’ve paved the way for the model, allowing anyone on the planet to earn money by playing and getting more skilled at the game. There are still tons of barriers to entry for the everyday person, and Axie Infinity feels more difficult to earn money on than getting a regular job as a banker (more or less). 2022 will see many more instances of games like this on the blockchain; more mainstream, with less barriers to entry, and providing an alternative source of income. It’s absurd, but it’s happening. Can you see the convergence of e-sports and play-to-earn games coming in the next few years? Our children are going to have some fun…



  • The developed world gets even more plant-based

Fairly self-explanatory here and pretty safe guess. As the years go on, plant-based food gets tastier and more interesting to omnivores like myself. Unlike 99% of London, I have no philosophical stance on the “plant-based versus meat” debate, but when I cook now, I rather use THIS or Heura than actual chicken-chicken. And when I get fast food, I prefer Ready Burger (low price plant-based burgers) than McDonalds. At the end of the day, if plant-based food is accessible, and as tasty as meat, why not eat it if it may make some kind of a difference to the planet?


@Plantbasednews - study by Nurishh

  • Fintech neobanks embrace crypto and DeFi

We will see mobile-first neobanks we know and love and use everyday provide the option of payment with crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum, taking another step into the mainstream use case. Imagine “going back in time” with your Curve card and spending from your Eth rather than your Monzo GBP account. Along with that, some will add in DeFi lending into their product. Imagine earning 10% APR instead of 1%, and accessing that through your Monzo or Revolut account. Decentralized finance through your centralized bank may sound counterintuitive (and it is), but there is currently a significant barrier to entry for the everyday person to get set up on a DeFi exchange and they are missing out on much higher yield than what is possible with centralized lending. Traditional fintechs may look to be a gateway into DeFi for the everyday person, starting 2022, providing a slick user experience otherwise not currently possible on a purely decentralized channel. 


  • We go even more hybrid

We’ve tried fully at-the-office, and we’ve tried fully remote. Countless employee surveys around the world have shown the answer is in between. Last year I spoke about believing in a future of “work-cations” (do productive work in Barbados), and my belief that Airbnb’s future will be in enabling people to work remotely from around the world. I still absolutely believe this to be true. A barrier until now has been tax compliance, and managing how to treat employees fairly based on their work environment (including compensation - should someone working in Guatemala get paid the same as someone working in New York if they’re doing the same job but have different living expenses?).  Startups like Deel, Hofy and Omnipresent are looking to solve these challenges, and I believe 2022 will be a big year of enabling employees to work with optimum productivity while getting the best of office and remote.



  • Mega step of converting illiquid share options into tangible cash for employees

We'll see a few big name private companies offer their staff the opportunity to cash in some of their vested share options for cash in secondary share sales - allowing a win-win for all, and will signal an exciting new piece in attracting top talent. This will be a key year and inflection point in this becoming the norm (perhaps to be done on an annual basis by growth-stage startups). Crowdcube (shameless plug) are facilitating this.

  • The year of cell-based meat

There are many exciting, well capitalized, startups in late R&D phase of taking a few cells (non-intrusively) from farm-raised animals, and multiplying them into full meat meals. Ivy Farm, one such exciting startup, says their meat will produce up to 92% less carbon emissions and will require 95% less land than traditional means. We won't be eating cell-based meat in 2022, but we will be hearing a lot more about it as we get ready for it to be released into mass retail around 2023