26 Key Sales Leadership Learnings in 18 Months

As I type this, I feel in a particularly reflective mood. I am sitting at a bar, in Palma de Mallorca, where I should probably be partying or eating chipirones (trust me, there will be lots of eating, but at most a geriatric amount of partying). As I sit here, I am extracting learnings from Q1, from 2022, and generally from the last few years of management both at Crowdcube and 3 years in management at tastePal. So this is really 4.5 years of reflections. Leadership is a fascinating thing. Intangible. No right or wrong. 50-50 moments. Off-the-cuff decisions.

This post will primarily focus on 18 months as Head of Sales at Crowdcube. Grab an avocado, dig in, and let me know which parts you disagree with.

Also - disclaimer is that there may be some glorious full sentences, and other points that feel like messy bullet points and should have remained jumbled scrawls in my mind. Such is life.

Disclaimer 2.0 is that if you're not currently in sales or management, you might find this to be an extremely dry read. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Here’s 26 reflections and learnings. Bon appetite.

(I reserve the right to completely change my mind on all of this by this time next week).

1. Remuneration

Incentivize on upside. Sales people will always want more money. They are hungry, motivated, driven, smart people. Where is the upside to working on Saturdays and Sundays outbounding to be the best in the team if commission is capped at a level disproportionate to time invested? This is how sales people think. These are highly intelligent people with opportunity cost in their lives, so committing time outside work hours needs to feel worth it. The upside needs to feel potentially life-changing. A sales-person wants to buy into what they’re selling, as if it’s their own business. And they want to believe - they need to believe - that committing their blood, sweat and tears can lead to outsized returns. Ofcourse this commission needs to be proportional to revenue brought in by the individual, and needs to be carefully considered on a team relative to individual level. Would outsized individual commission lead to a disruption in culture of "stealing" leads from other team members? Is hybrid model of team and individual commission preferable? Details depend on structure of team and company revenue, but the principle of outsized (potentially life-changing) commission potential needs to apply to get the best, most motivated BDs.

2. Lead by example

A Sales Manager or Head of Sales needs to gain trust and respect early on in the role. Key way to do this is to lead by example by being exceptional at sales, closing deals that are seen as “marquee”, and being the model to aspire to. One of my failings was that when I started the role, I became so transfixed on the “management” side of it, and I wanted to allocate my pipeline to the new team members to boost their pipeline - but it came at the cost of bringing in deals myself. I became rusty, I became more of a manager than a leader or a world class sales-person, and I jeopardized the respect of the team as my role appeared more administrative than operational.

3. To consider when rebuilding a team

Hire fast - if hiring is priority. It is priority. Easy to do 11 things at 50% quality, but then hiring can take months. When there are key hires to be made, I recommend throwing everything at it.

Based on recent learnings, I recommend going this route if you need to make a great hire quickly - Do all of these in conjunction with each other, simultaneously: Use multiple recruiters; Otta; Flexa; Update your Linkedin page as “Hiring”; Post about it; Outbound top candidates yourself; Get different teams in the company to share; Offer referral incentives within teams; Revisit salary band and commission if needed. Do whatever it takes to get a high volume of top candidates as quickly as possible, because for any business where sales cycles take months, taking months to hire new team members on top of that in a rebuild is suicide.

4. Learnings from Interview process

There is no perfect process. I have learnt that a task that is representative of the daily job is helpful - for the individual to present in an interview and to talk through their thinking. Look out for soft skills - the little things like if they pause after making their point to see if you have questions or feedback, look out for if they are confident enough to provide substantiation to what they have stated in the task. Challenge them to see how they hold up to it. Disagree with them. Challenging and disagreeing will test how, even under pressure, they are able to show confidence and control the room - because clients will challenge them and disagree with them so you need to test it here first.

Be sure to give them enough time to discuss their questions with you, and be generous with your time - giving a clear view of the business’s growth plans and commercial model so they have as much information as possible to make an informed decision if they want to proceed. Remember - interviews should be a perfect fit for both, not just the employer. Final point on this - If the candidate is a 7/10, it’s a “no”.

5. If the majority of your team members are new

Pour your heart and soul into training them to be the best. If there are multiple people being onboarded at the same time, they are the future of the team - and your investment in them now may only yield rewards in a few months time, but those rewards will be worth it. Do not overlook the importance of an excellent onboarding

6. Onboard plan learnings

Be conscious of “nice to haves” versus essentials. “Nice to haves” may extend onboarding plans by weeks, but that theoretical training may only come up with clients 5% of the time. Think about onboarding in terms of the 80-20 rule. Get candidates to know enough to start working with clients asap, and optimize for practical learnings “just in time” rather than “just in case”. Get them in front of clients early, join them on meetings, and do full debriefs with them on what they did well, and what they can improve.

Aim for quick wins with clients - if you have a strong inbound and partnerships channel, be sure to give straightforward deals to new members of the team to boost their confidence and to demonstrate to them that the onboarding has been effective, and they know more than they think. I am a big advocate of the idea of learn-by-doing more than overwhelming with theory which has no context in real client situations. I remember when I started at Crowdcube, I felt overwhelmed by the theory. The onboarding was 4-5 weeks of theory but I didn’t have much of a reference point. Then when I started with clients, it felt almost like I was starting from the beginning because I wasn’t fully absorbing the theory at the time (maybe that just means I’m a slow learner). The goal now is that our Business Development Managers can lead meetings by the end of week 2. Get quick wins and iterate their learning. One of the big breakthroughs in our onboarding has been the use of Jiminny (you may know of their competitor, Gong). Being able to watch / listen to other team members’ historical meetings is a game-changer. Ambitious BDs take it home, drink in the content on weekends, and arrive at work in week 2 as if they’re 6 months in because of the quality learnings available.

7. Introduce new hires into the culture early on

It’s extremely important to make new hires feel at home as early as possible. Put yourself in their shoes - new company, new role, new people, significant pressure, and some have even moved cities or countries. We need to do everything we can to integrate them seamlessly. I strongly encourage having sessions already booked in their calendar and their systems ready for setup. I’d advise also having a team lunch on their first day or first week, and/or a team or company social to integrate them outside of work hours. Details matter for new hires.

I joined Crowdcube from South Africa in 2019. I arrived in UK on the Friday and I started work on the Monday. We went for team lunch on my first day and there was a social that week - it made all the difference to me in feeling “like home”.

8. Training never stops - and has to be consistent

Have recurring training sessions in the calendar - some weekly/ some monthly/ some quarterly.. Have a clear map of what training is needed when (it can be a mix of Objection Handling, Compliance sessions, Value Proposition Refreshers, Marketing Refreshers, Peer-to-Peer coaching sessions etc). Be on top of where the team’s weaknesses are and constantly be looking to fill those gaps. Send quarterly Google Form out to the team to check in where their training gaps are - for them to as honestly as possible state where they are unsure, so that you can be proactive in booking in necessary trainings.

Host a weekly meeting for the nuclear team - this should be a small session that’s as interactive as possible - each individual in the team should discuss what are priorities for the week; how can we help each other; what did we learn that week; current quantitative position in the quarter. The goal of that weekly session should be to create a culture of supporting each other, and sharing mistakes and learnings for accelerated team learning - there is no room for ego.

One of my mistakes has been to only set up Weekly sessions like this very late into my role. This meant for the last 18 months, some team challenges either only came up in discussions in the other training sessions, or I needed to pick up trends in our one-to-ones. That leads to higher likelihood of reactiveness. The Weekly sessions provide structure, support and accountability and if I could start again, I would implement that Week 1 as a no-brainer.

9. Professional Development is key

Once a quarter, run Professional Development plan sessions with each individual in the team. The goal of this should be to work on what they want to Stop, Start and Continue in their current role, what their medium term goals are in the company, and what their medium / long term goals are in their career. These sessions are key to show you care - and that you are going to work with them to achieve their goals.

Consistency is key - one of my mistakes has been that I started with these plans, but then as things got busier, I relegated them and haven’t done them for the last few quarters.

10. Never get complacent on the team’s ambitions

Tying into the above point; be proactive in understanding each individual’s professional ambitions and do everything to clear the way for them. Fight for them for salary. Give clear quantitative goals for them to strive towards and stick to your word if they achieve. Fight for gender equality on pay. They need to feel that their boss wants them to grow and succeed. That’s the only way they will truly give their all.

These are critical factors in morale and indirectly on performance. I have sometimes done this well and sometimes not - it’s something I will always strive to improve on because I know it’s so important for me if roles are reversed.

11. Be a data machine

Have a rock solid definition of what good looks like in terms of handover volume, estimated revenue, closed lost rate, outbounds-to-meeting-to-deals-signed ratio. It’s extremely difficult for a new member of the team to come in and know "good" if numbers are murky. I haven’t been excellent at this - I’ve had a good grasp of the big picture numbers, but haven’t been as laser focused on the micro numbers as I should be - another big learning.

12. Be physically present

As a sales leader, you should be available wherever the majority of the team is. If the team is in the office, you should be in the office. Being physically present allows for serendipitous moments after a client meeting where you can provide advice and support - it’s really difficult to quantify the value of that, but I believe it’s extremely high. It took me a while in the beginning to adapt to this - I was so pro-remote work that even when the majority of the team were in the office, I was working from cafes and from home. Oh I just love working from cafes - too much. Over the last 5 months I’ve worked most days in the office when my team has been there, and I’ve seen the serendipity in action where perhaps previously they wouldn’t have sent that additional Slack message asking for support. Little things like this can make a big difference.

13. Find a working model that works for the team

Whether it Hybrid or flex or remote, the manager needs to understand each individual in their team. Where do they live, what works best for them, how productive are they in the current system, what is the composition of their average day. The manager should have that discussion with each individual. This decision should not be top-down enforcement. I believe the hybrid vs. office vs. remote is one of the great professional challenges of our times - but I also believe it’s really simple. We should trust each other. We should show each other respect, find a way that works for everyone, and if we do that, the team will feel it and want to perform at their best.

14. Morale is incredibly... incredibly important

Tough times in a company may lead to cost cutting. It may lead to a lack of salary increases or bonuses. Sacrifices need to be made. But morale will always be important. No matter what. The manager needs to understand how to boost morale of the team - and it doesn't need to involve significant costs. Senior leadership should support this. It may be simple things like celebrating birthdays of people in the team, vouchers as a “congratulations” for successful deals closed, or a proverbial arm around the shoulder of support . Little things, but if done proactively they can show the team that the company has best intentions, and backs the team to turn things around.

15. When someone in the team is over-performing, show recognition

Sales cycles take long and sales may not convert into revenue immediately (at Crowdcube it takes 3-4 months after signing a deal for it to convert into revenue). A BD needs to know they're doing a good job. If you "lose" 1 deal after winning 9, it can still feel like the world has fallen apart. I recommend asking other senior people in the team to send a message to the achieving team member or take them out for coffee/lunch - it’s a very simple low hanging fruit way to show that the person is recognised and appreciated in the organization

16. Continue to sell at a high level

To re-iterate this one. The manager needs to continue to sell at a high level. How can you train / lead / be proactive on what's not working with Product Market Fit if you’re not staying sharp? Such a big part of the job of a Sales Manager or Head of Sales is objection handling and help with getting deals over the line, and it really is like a muscle that needs to be exercised to experience hypertrophy, or else it will atrophy. Volume may be lower, but value would be higher. Close high value deals, and host “learning sessions” on what you did to close those deals. The learnings and trainings never stop

17. Join the team on their sell and encourage team-sell where necessary

Self-explanatory. If a client brings multiple stakeholders onto a meeting, we should do the same. If the deal is high value, we need to recognize that by bringing in people who have the gravitas of experience. The subtle signaling of team-selling shows that you value their business. This is massively important not only in a competitive environment, but generally if you want to be the best consistently.

18. Be an ultra-effective liaison with other key teams

Be proactive on engaging with marketing on assets that are needed to help with the position of the value proposition. Get very close with the campaign / account management team - because they have the best understanding of if client’s expectations have been managed appropriately by the sales team. We need to constantly get feedback from them and improve.

19. Competition.. Oooh Competition

Use competition as inspiration to be better. Show them respect. They are clearly not sh*t at everything, and clients know that. Acknowledge to yourselves internally, and directly to clients where your competitors are strong, and give clear and practical thinking on why you have chosen to do it the way you do it. There is a reason for every decision in your business, and your sales team should buy into it with every fibre in their being and be able to explain the rationale to clients like their life depends on it. Use competitors as fuel to be better, rather than bashing them. Hold objection handling frequently to keep the team sharp

20. Firing

Do it the right way. When concerns start to arise, initiate a firm Performance plan with assistance from HR. Communicate up front that there is job risk, and provide clear areas that are not where they need to be (this again highlights the value of having a good understanding of the quantitative "what good looks like" in the role to use as a benchmark). Share written performance plan and work through it together candidly and transparently with the goal of turning it around and turning the individual into a top performer. Do not just one day set up a meeting and pull the trigger. It’s not fair to the individual, and doesn't give them a fair chance to turn it around - and the knock-on effect on team morale is profound. Probation is different if a wrong hire is simply wrong hire. But after several months / years into the role, there is a certain level of respect and share of responsibility that is deserved. I had big learnings on this one, and definitely feel that I’m much better prepared now to handle this situation in future.

21. Resignations

It is your goal to see it coming. A surprise resignation is a failing of management, because the manager should have their finger on the pulse of the team at all times. If there is a risk of resignation/s coming, start the hiring process early. Hiring can take longer than hoped because, as Liverpool FC manager (I had to get them in here) Jürgen Klopp says "it’s better to have a hole than asshole". Never rush hiring. But if you know in advance you may have to hire, it makes that much easier.

Support the resignation of the employee and do whatever you can to help them. If you have helped them to take an exciting step in their career that is a better fit for them, you have succeeded as a leader, and that’s what it’s about.

22. Misconduct

If there is anything that looks like it even has the slightest chance of misconduct, escalate it internally to those who have had experience dealing with previously. At a company party social, a leader still has to take responsibility if you see something that doesn't look right and needs to act swiftly. Then escalate as if it's the most serious version of events, rather than seeking to handle it yourself.

23. Process and operational improvement

While juggling the above plates, the manager’s finger needs to be on the pulse of where major blockers are in the team. You need to use any goodwill internally to push for this and put together a strong case for how that efficiency increase can translate into results. A real life example (and another mistake I’ve made) at Crowdcube is that Inbound applications from clients could be much slicker and more efficient. I noticed this and had it requested many times by people in our team, but I de-prioritized. If I had sorted this out upon first request, we would have had a more efficient inbound system over the last year, and it’s difficult to quantify how many hours could have been saved for clients and for our team.

24. Clear blockers for the team to excel

It could be an escalation of a deal that has become extremely complex, or it could be frustrating admin that’s stopping them from doing what they do best. A manager needs to remove blockers. If it’s a complex deal that has stumped the member of the team - it’s the manager’s job to jump on it , level with the client , sort it out, reflect on learnings as a team and move on, rather than letting the complexity fester and disrupt that BDs pipeline and time for hours/days/weeks to come.

25. Be ruthless in prioritization

Between hiring, onboarding, training, one-to-ones with team, one-to-ones with individuals in other teams, professional development, outbounding, closing deals, building strong relationships with adjacent teams and striving for greater operational efficiency, it's impossible to do all of them at 10/10 all the time. A sales leader needs to be able to say no. I recommend setting 3 key priorities on any given day, week and month. It’s such a simple concept - but I remember from his book, Bob Iger advocated for this when he became Disney CEO when he took over a mess and had to describe his objectives to the board - it worked out pretty well for him to provide that much needed clarity and focus.

26. Manage upwards

Be open to take coaching and advice from your boss and boss’s boss. Be a company-person first and strive to fulfill the desires of your manager. But hold convictions, be candid in discussions giving the thoughts and experiences of what you believe is right based on being in the thick of things on a daily basis, and have evidence ready to support your case if disagreeing with your manager. Be proactive in seeking advice from senior leadership in the company if it feels like the team is facing a significant and concerning challenge. Be persistent in ensuring that the challenge is taken seriously even if that means discussing with multiple stakeholders in the business.

If you have enough conviction in it, you have to fight for it.

So those are my reflections.

I will have many more over the next 18 months, but I felt the need to get them down on digital paper. I realize about myself I often need 2 or more attempts to get something right, but the beauty of the last 18 months is that I have been exposed to a little bit of everything and often more than once, so my skills have had many opportunities to sharpen and re-sharpen. I haven't always prioritized effectively, and I’ve often fallen into trap of being reactive. Every day in Sales Management there are new challenges and new opportunities to improve. That's the beauty of it. Makes it fun. I hope at least one of these thoughts are interesting / useful - and if not, it was cathartic for me to write down - so we all win.

Onwards and upwards!

100x Multiplier

The 100x multiplier 

No, I’m not talking about every VC’s dream of getting a return on their fund. 

(Although I could talk about that all day with anyone who wants to have lunch with me)

I’m talking about positively impacting as many people as possible, as much as possible. 

According to Will MacAskill in ‘Doing Good Better’…

If you’re earning >£10,500, you’re in the richest 10% of the world’s population. 

If you’re earning above £34,000, you're top 1%.

[as of 2015 stats]

According to MacAskill, for those of us living in UK, you could do at least one hundred times as much to benefit other people (elsewhere in the world) as you can to benefit yourself.

Now that number should be taken with a pinch of salt, but even if it's 5x the impact, we should dig deeper.

Philosophers Peter Unger, Peter Singer and more recently William MacAskill have been advocates of the notion of  ‘Earning to give’: This is an enormously powerful way of doing good in the world, and may be more effective than doing good through our career, or sometimes even volunteering (controversial, I know). 

Earning to give exploits the fact that even "typical" workers in developed countries are among the top income earners in the world. Combine that with currency arbitrage when giving to developing countries and the effectiveness of some of the most best charities in the world, and we have a recipe for optimum impact.

Looked at another way. Compare the cost of distribution of edible surplus food in fighting poverty. Felix Project and Food Forward SA are two excellent NGOs in this space, and both redistribute edible surplus food to those at risk of extreme hunger. An extremely noble cause that is saving lives. 

Felix Project (UK): Approximately £0.22 to distribute 1 meal

Food Forward (South Africa): Approximately £0.033 to distribute 1 meal (roughly current exchange rate)

There might not be 100x difference in cost between distributing a meal in SA (via FoodForward) compared to in UK (via Felix Project), but the principle applies with a significant cost difference - as £100 can distribute 454 meals in UK, which is great - but, it can distribute 3030 meals in South Africa, which is substantial scale for a relatively small donation (3030 meals = 1000 people fed for a full day, or 100 people fed for a full month, depending how you want to cut it).

That is not to say we should ignore local problems. Charity starts at home and all that. But a question to consider through the lens of effective altruism is, “how do I impact as many people as possible, as much as possible?

I find this idea intoxicating. We get caught up easily in our day to day lives, struggling based on cost of living increase, comparing our salaries to those around us. And faced with the paradox of choice of charity, it’s easier to simply do nothing and focus on our own lives. But if we zoom out - We are genuinely doing well. We should not only be grateful for everything we have, but consider the outsized impact we could have if we leverage the Great British Pound relative to Rwandan Franc, the South African Rand, the Colombian Peso, the Cambodian Riel etc . How the pancakes we ate this morning could translate to monthly school fees for a student, or 340 meals reaching those in need through an effective NGO. 

Impacting as many people as possible, as much as possible. 

I’ll end this with MacAskill’s 5 key questions of effective altruism

• How many people benefit and by how much?

• Is this the most effective thing you can do?

• Is this area neglected?

• What would have happened otherwise? 

• What are the chances of success, and how good would success be?

So what's my key takeaway from all this?

Based on our current salaries, even if we feel we should be earning more (which we probably do), we are still incredibly well placed to make a difference in the world. I find that extremely powerful and encouraging, and should inspire action - check out givewell.org for more insights into best way to do this.

Fat and lazy

I’ve been eating a lot lately. 

Pizza. Tapas. Hackney Gelato. All the patatas bravas I could get my hands on when I was in Sevilla.

Everyone acknowledges that excess food physically affects you with weight gain, health etc. But here's the problem - there’s more to it.

That is - the short term psychological side that affects discipline. After I’ve over-eaten, I’m lethargic. I’m lazy. I’m more inclined to do the bare minimum of whatever my task is thereafter. If I have the option of either writing a blog post or watching a movie, I would choose the latter every day of the week. Starting a no-code online course, or starting rewatching The Office for the 785th time? Give me Dwight Schrute.

It takes a significant amount of discipline and mental energy to overcome the mental malaise from being full and lethargic. 

That’s an issue. 

The phrase “to be hungry” is not just a trope. 

It applies on an individual level and on a company level.

As Roelof Botha famously said, “more startups die of indigestion than from hunger”. 

Being scrappy and lean on resource is a gift, and possibly a superpower. 

Being bloated with excess resource leads to sloppiness, inefficient use of resource.

This is one of the major problems of the recent bull market. Companies were bloated. There was indigestion. Lazy allocation of resource. Attempts to grow in markets that were luxury / not core to business.

Hunger is a powerful motivator. 

To be content is dangerous. 

And to have indigestion is the biggest trap of all. 

As a society, in this market, we will all eat less. 

Doing more with less. Raising less capital. Less disposable income. Time to be scrappy. 

Those who thrive will be the ones who see it as an opportunity. 

To be Non-consensus and Right

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform, pause or reflect. - Mark Twain

The gold rush. Acting on the side of the majority.

FOMO. Consensus…

Whatever you want to call it. 

Nobody judges the person going for the gold rush, even if they’re wrong. Nobody judges the person buying Tesla at the top of the share price, even if they're wrong.

Consensus-decision making is a safety blanket that’s not going to change the world. Sheltered from criticism of others.

Consensus decisions don't put you in the spotlight. You don't get questioned. No justification at all needed. Consensus decision-making prioritizes short term perceptions of others, and a desire to not be left out, or to miss out.

Non-consensus decisions however… 

They need a vision, a justification. Based on profound personal conviction. 

To be non-consensus in a sea of consensus thinking prioritizes long-term impact, over short term perception of others.

Being bold on non-consensus beliefs gives the chance of adding high value in the long term versus consensus-beliefs adding low value in the short term.

To the founders - we don't need another food delivery app or grocery delivery app. We don't need another 6/10 pizzeria on a busy restaurant street. We don't need another startup aiming to be 10% better than a wildly competitive market because the consensus is that there is a market for that product.

We need something 10x better. We need you to take a risk on being non-consensus and wrong. We need you to take the risk of looking like a fool with the chance of spectacular failure. In order to solve the climate crisis, in order to solve food insecurity, we need you to put short term popularity on the line for the tiny chance of being non-consensus and right. That's who history will remember. To build a product or service the world didn't know it needed, until it did know.

To the investors - why join the grocery delivery gold rush? Founders with non-consensus visions of the world need backers who have a similar boldness to stand out from the pack and risk it all. The power law of investing applies to the non-consensus opportunities far more than consensus. You won't make 100x on the startup that everyone knows is going to be a success - because there will be 1000 other startups doing the same thing. You may make 100x on the idea that looks a little crazy to the majority right now - less competition to get into the deal, less competition in the market, avoid the gold rush. A true visionary founder sees the future and you will be backing that person. You may be wrong and you may have to account to LPs and yourself, but if you stick to your principles, your winner will offset all the losses many times over.

To the university students - consensus-decisions for you could be taking the step to become a doctor, lawyer, accountant, engineer. Good job, you'll earn well, you'll be content. If you have a fire inside of you to do something non-consensus like becoming an artist, a musician, a policeman, a founder, a producer... You may be wrong. But if you're right, you'll be truly happy and create real utility and value for others.. possibly leaving a legacy.

To reiterate, it takes immense courage to make non-consensus decisions in the face of a world of consensus. And a word of caution - don’t be a contrarian for the sake of it. It takes intense personal conviction and logic behind your ideas to travel the path less travelled.

But... if you have a startup idea, an investment opportunity, or a profession that lights a fire in you, dare to be non-consensus and right.

Solve real problems in the world. Move the world forward.

2022 Trends: My Shameless Predictions

I did this last year, and it was fun. That’s what predictions are all about, right? Having a bit of fun, making wildly speculative guesses based on macro trends, and getting 1 out of 10 right. I met another 500+ startups in 2021, and for me, it’s a nice exercise in consolidating the meetings and readings from the last year into a few bullet points. It’s fun to look back to see how some trends accelerate much quicker than expected, and how some are actually years off. Last year, I anticipated ‘the year of psilocybin’ and a massive leap for social e-commerce in the West - but now, it feels like those are still a way off. 

I go again, and as ever, ranging from the mildly obvious to the ludicrously speculative, to be taken with a NBA-player-hand-size punch (definitely not a pinch) of salt.

• The rise of the Software Engineer

There are currently only 27 million software engineers in the world. For context, there are around 80 million+ teachers. From the mobile device in our hand, the email that we send a client, the game we play in the evening, the commute home, the Amazon delivery we eagerly anticipate, to the way we store our money, and just about everything in between, software engineers are literally building our future. 2022 will see a sharp rise in the programmes to upskill people into the developer space - see HyperionDev as great example of this. Not everyone wants to learn to code ofcourse, so No-low code platforms will take a massive stride into mainstream consciousness to allow idiots like myself to build something that people could actually use - see Bubble as example.

• NFTs become useful

Unless you’ve become a millionaire from them, I’m sure you’re getting mildly annoyed by seeing people getting so irrationally excited about pictures of a mutant ape shooting a laser-beam from his one eye (only $3.6m to earn this beauty). It’s absurd.

But, every game-changing technology starts off looking absurd and a little useless.

2022 will be the year of NFTs becoming digital pieces of ownership with utility. Songs, event tickets, in-game purchases will be the initial progression. We’ll see more of Twitter, Facebook and Instagram embracing NFTs as part of social status and even community building. Influencers will get more and more involved and will attach their brand to NFT projects, possibly building a community dedicated to a social cause, or to give first access to fan content -  Hasbullah and Justin Bieber have created their own collections already. I warn you - It will get more irritating and more useless in the mainstream view before it gets better - there will be boom and bust cycles, but behind the scenes, there will be real life use cases emerging that will move the world forward.   

• You'll [nearly] have your first VR team meeting

Last year I said that AR and VR are 2-3 years off. 2021 took a much bigger stride than I expected. It may be as a result of the big year web3 had in 2021 and Facebook’s rebrand to Meta. Omicron is a key catalyst for this too. Children who can’t yet talk are talking about “the metaverse”, and VR is now a big winner. Oculus was #1 app download in US for Christmas (and top 5 in 14 different countries) and the Quest 2 has finally made at-home VR a fun and high quality experience. The ability to play table tennis or poker with friends from around the world while chatting to their avatars and highly realistic physics is a mega step forward. VR won't quite be ready to be an integrated factor in your work life, but it won't be far away (think 2023-2024). It won’t all be at home, yet, either - people crave IRL activities with friends more than ever - we’re willing to pay £30 to throw axes at a wall (bizarrely enjoyable), but we're not all ready to spend £250 on an Oculus Quest for home use. Experiences like Otherworld in the UK will be the go-to VR experience with friends on a fun night out (also saving you from inadvertently punching your window at home while doing VR boxing). 

• You’ll consider naming your dog DAO because you'll hear the word so often

DAOs - Decentralized Autonomous Organizations - These are communities in which decisions get made bottom-up, organized around a specific set of rules which are set by smart contracts enforced on a blockchain. The communities engage on a discussion tool like Discord, have a common set of values and a common purpose like an ordinary organization, and typically have a pooled budget with which to enforce the vision of the community. Each DAO has its own mission, and smart contracts which determine the set of rules. Remember the news about Constitution DAO? They had the purpose of pooling funds together (>$41m) to “put the Constitution in the hands of The People” by seeking to buy a rare first printing of the U.S. Constitution during a Sotheby's auction. We have only scratched the surface of what type of DAOs we’ll see - it may not be in 2022 - but the future will see Limited Companies take the philosophical view of starting as DAOs which are entirely bottom-up and employee driven. In the short term, I believe 2022 will see early iterations of Venture Capital DAOs, and modern NGOs with people from around the world who want to solve big problems and want to be directly responsible for how the money is spent. 

• B2B and B2C Sustainability platforms flourishing

There will increased focus (and increased pressure) in 2022 from early stage startups all the way to mega corporations to show off their sustainability credentials, and proving that they’re on a path to carbon neutral / carbon negative. Platforms like Ecologi, Earthly, Treeapp and Pawprint will be excellently poised to help companies with this, and will see strong growth in 2022

• Play to Earn Games will hit mainstream

Axie Infinity was the pioneer and winner of Play To Earn in 2021. They’ve paved the way for the model, allowing anyone on the planet to earn money by playing and getting more skilled at the game. There are still tons of barriers to entry for the everyday person, and Axie Infinity feels more difficult to earn money on than getting a regular job as a banker (more or less). 2022 will see many more instances of games like this on the blockchain; more mainstream, with less barriers to entry, and providing an alternative source of income. It’s absurd, but it’s happening. Can you see the convergence of e-sports and play-to-earn games coming in the next few years? Our children are going to have some fun…

• The developed world gets even more plant-based

Fairly self-explanatory here and pretty safe guess. As the years go on, plant-based food gets tastier and more interesting to omnivores like myself. Unlike 99% of London, I have no philosophical stance on the “plant-based versus meat” debate, but when I cook now, I rather use THIS or Heura than actual chicken-chicken. And when I get fast food, I prefer Ready Burger (low price plant-based burgers) than McDonalds. At the end of the day, if plant-based food is accessible, and as tasty as meat, why not eat it if it may make some kind of a difference to the planet?

@Plantbasednews - study by Nurishh

• Fintech neobanks embrace crypto and DeFi

We will see mobile-first neobanks we know and love and use everyday provide the option of payment with crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum, taking another step into the mainstream use case. Imagine “going back in time” with your Curve card and spending from your Eth rather than your Monzo GBP account. Along with that, some will add in DeFi lending into their product. Imagine earning 10% APR instead of 1%, and accessing that through your Monzo or Revolut account. Decentralized finance through your centralized bank may sound counterintuitive (and it is), but there is currently a significant barrier to entry for the everyday person to get set up on a DeFi exchange and they are missing out on much higher yield than what is possible with centralized lending. Traditional fintechs may look to be a gateway into DeFi for the everyday person, starting 2022, providing a slick user experience otherwise not currently possible on a purely decentralized channel. 

• We go even more hybrid

We’ve tried fully at-the-office, and we’ve tried fully remote. Countless employee surveys around the world have shown the answer is in between. Last year I spoke about believing in a future of “work-cations” (do productive work in Barbados), and my belief that Airbnb’s future will be in enabling people to work remotely from around the world. I still absolutely believe this to be true. A barrier until now has been tax compliance, and managing how to treat employees fairly based on their work environment (including compensation - should someone working in Guatemala get paid the same as someone working in New York if they’re doing the same job but have different living expenses?).  Startups like Deel, Hofy and Omnipresent are looking to solve these challenges, and I believe 2022 will be a big year of enabling employees to work with optimum productivity while getting the best of office and remote.

• Mega step of converting illiquid share options into tangible cash for employees

We'll see a few big name private companies offer their staff the opportunity to cash in some of their vested share options for cash in secondary share sales - allowing a win-win for all, and will signal an exciting new piece in attracting top talent. This will be a key year and inflection point in this becoming the norm (perhaps to be done on an annual basis by growth-stage startups). Crowdcube (shameless plug) are facilitating this.

• The year of cell-based meat

There are many exciting, well capitalized, startups in late R&D phase of taking a few cells (non-intrusively) from farm-raised animals, and multiplying them into full meat meals. Ivy Farm, one such exciting startup, says their meat will produce up to 92% less carbon emissions and will require 95% less land than traditional means. We won't be eating cell-based meat in 2022, but we will be hearing a lot more about it as we get ready for it to be released into mass retail around 2023

Some Web 3 Thoughts

Web 3, the metaverse, crypto, bitcoin, Layer 1, protocols, blockchain, NFTs, Zuckerberg, Meta, Bored Apes, Crypto Punks, Ponzi scheme....

You’ve heard all of these at least 786 times in the last 6 months. 

Are you early? Are you late? Should you even care? 

I must start off by saying I might just be on the threshold of being an idiot, and I’m not technical at all, so even though I’ve listened to hours of podcasts and read many blogs on these topics, I still only have a very surface level understanding. 

With that said, I meet startups every day as a profession, and having met over 1000 in the last 2 years, there’s a certain subconscious and conscious understanding of trends going on. I could write 500 pieces about the different learnings, but one trend that comes up often is the unfairness of the current system for the Creator. I’ll refer to the Creator with an ‘uppercase C’ in this piece as the person who seeks to monetize a blog, their music, their art, their skills, their ideas, their influence etc. This really can be anyone. Currently, the world is set up for organizations to take anywhere between 50% to 90% of the financial benefit away from these Creators. For example, on Spotify, creators get *only* up to 20% of the financial benefit. 

The current system is broken.

So let’s take a step back and define some of the terms. Disclaimer here is that any definition or idea I give here is an amalgamation of learnings extracted from people who *actually* understand the space, and I highly recommend you follow them on social media,subscribe to their newsletters and listen to their podcasts if you want to explore more - including Naval Ravikant, Chris Dixon, Balaji Srinivasan, Tim Ferriss, Vinny Lingham and Packy McCormick.

Also, I’m going to give overly simplified views of everything, because simple mental models may effectively describe up to 80% of these ideas. But it’s definitely worth digging in more to get the full picture. 

To start off, I heard a simple explanation of the difference between Web 1, Web 2 and Web 3 from Tim Ferriss that stuck with me:

Web 1: Read (Dominated by Microsoft)
Web 2: Read + Write (Dominated by Facebook, Twitter, Instagram etc)

Web 3: Read + Write + Own

Web 3 is dominated by no-one. It is decentralized. It cuts out the middleman organization that seeks to own your data. Web 3 is an internet that is owned by users and builders, and digital tokens are the currency that facilitates it. 

Web 3 is all about value and control given to you, and to me, and to all Creators, builders, users. No longer is Facebook using your data against you. No longer is Spotify benefiting from Adele’s latest song. No longer is the “poor struggling artist” a thing. In theory at least. 

It’s going to take a while to get there. At the moment the user interfaces are mostly atrocious (by everyday user standards). There are countless applications being built upon different layer 1 blockchain protocols. We could talk a lot more about layer 1 protocols, but for simplicity, these are essentially “the operating systems” of Web 3 - Ethereum is currently the biggest, and other growing ones include Solana, Cardano etc. The smartest developers around the world are being increasingly attracted to work on Web 3 and are building on top of these “operating systems”, and it’s just a matter of time until we see applications as easy to use as the apps we have on our phones now, but fully decentralized. 

Now let’s take a look at NFTs. Non Fungible Tokens. 

It has been so interesting to see one side of the world so excited about them, and the other side saying “lol people are buying Jpegs bro”. 

The beauty of NFTs is that they look so simple. Phase 1 of NFTs is ridiculous monkey Jpegs. But under the hood, there is so much going on. This is my understanding:

NFTs are programmable web pages / digital certificates, which can have an infinite number of properties that apply to the owner/s. For example, you could buy an NFT of an ape, but within that, there can be specific rights that apply uniquely to you as the owner of that digital certificate. This could be sell-on commission rights for if/when that NFT is sold in future - ie. The creator makes money every single time that NFT is sold on; that’s pretty exciting for the Creator world. This could be the right to attend community events with fellow owners of that NFT. This could be exclusive access to discounts of related products or partnerships of that NFT. 

We are seeing a sense of belonging to a community associated with NFT purchases. Jungle Cats, a project on Solanarts, attract people who are passionate about animal conservation - A person buys a Jungle Cat NFT - in exchange the Creators contribute to conservation NGOs, and the buyer of the NFT becomes part of an exclusive Discord community where the passion of animal conservation is a central discussion topic. If they happen to sell their Jungle Cat NFT, they can benefit financially above and beyond the sense of belonging to the community, but it’s not necessarily a “buy to sell” trader mentality only. 

NFTs can facilitate building a community unlike we’ve seen before. Giving extrinsic and intrinsic ownership of a piece or a full asset. Then, if that asset is sold on, the original Creator can benefit every single time a transaction happens with in-built commission. To reiterate an earlier point - this is significant because the current model is for a Creator to take a tiny commission (1-20%) commonly, and only once off. As a piece of digital art propagates around the ecosystem, everyone benefits, the community grows, Kevin Kelly’s idea of “1000 true fans” becomes more powerful than ever. 

Then there’s NFTs in gaming. In the old world, you buy a piece of armour, a weapon, a skin, or cool outfit for your character etc, and it has no real value outside of that game. The value is only really the value you place on it by virtue of playing that game. It’s basically just us pretending the game has value and the things within the game have value, because it’s fun. 

In the new Web 3 world, those gaming elements will be NFTs with real financial value associated with them. In online games, there could be the ability for players to create NFT weapons, outfits etc, and sell to other players. You’ll be able to trade these elements with others, and the original Creators will benefit financially each time. This will facilitate an in-game economy with real-life financial benefit. In this idea, this is a closed system just for that one game. But where this gets really interesting, is where interoperability comes in - where you can buy an outfit for a character in one game, and carry that across into another game. This is where game NFTs will have real-value. 

Now let’s talk Metaverse. Where we place real life value on the virtual experience. 

NFTs are going to be a key catalyst to the metaverse, and having interoperability between different virtual experiences will be key to this. Zuckerberg with Meta may want a closed metaverse (where Facebook essentially “own” the virtual world), but consensus thinking is that’s not a good thing. Consensus thinking is that would be, well, kind of terrifying. We want an open metaverse - where there are countless creators of virtual experiences, and these virtual experiences are interlinked and shared and where you keep the digital assets (NFTs) you buy and use them across the open metaverse (with the option of selling on, allowing yourself and the original Creator to benefit). You buy a digital Louis Vuitton for your avatar (NFT, which can also give you exclusive access to their launch events), and you keep it with you everywhere you go in the digital world - and you keep the social status that comes with it. 

It’s going to take quite some time until we live in a Ready Player One-esque metaverse, and I don’t know that we ever want to / should. But I see a world in which digital assets take on similar importance to physical assets. In this new world, Creators win, and there are countless exciting possibilities that are not dystopian. 

So this is where we are now…

Bitcoin opened everyone’s eyes to a world where digital currency could have a real use case. 

Now the world is trying to figure out how we can give digital assets a real use case. 

Blockchain protocols are increasing in speed, decreasing in cost, and becoming more attractive for world class developers to develop upon.

Covid has catalyzed the world into living the majority of our professional lives online, in virtual rather than physical meetings. 

Gaming has progressed to the point where world class gamers are getting paid and revered as much as world class sports players. And the business model of gaming is shifting away from up-front buy to in-game purchases. 

The world is fed up with Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Spotify etc using and owning our data, and keeping Creators from experiencing the value that they deserve.

And now. We’re in a transition period. A convergence of trends. 

We’re in a period where Web 3 has come alive. Where decentralization is here to bring all of these concurrent trends together. As Naval Ravikant has said, where Creators can get real financial value instead of “likes” and “hearts” only.

It’s an uncomfortable moment. Something big is bubbling under the surface. As difficult to describe as the internet was in the 90s. 

I believe we’re still very early. 

Overall, I’m very hopeful and excited about this progression.

Let’s buckle in and enjoy the ride.