Over the course of 2020, I had over 500 meetings with founders of diverse backgrounds, all who were trying to create the future they desperately crave. From discussions with them, from research and reading, and with a heavy-handed sprinkle of intuition and gut feel, I have compiled a list of trends I expect to see in the startup world of 2021 (and some beyond). Some are obvious, and some are slightly more left field.
They are my predictions, not fact. Not investment advice. Take with a pinch of salt and a glass of wine:
- Food & Beverage will get plantier, buggy and more low/no
No one is doubting the plant-based trend right now. From meal subscription kits, to ‘fake’ chicken (THIS is a pretty awesome brand), to endurance drinks and protein powders, the revolution has just begun. Also expect to see insects take over the pet food space with companies like Aardvark entering the exciting market, and low/no alcohol take another huge step towards mainstream consumption
- Psychedelic medication
Psilocybin will take another step towards mainstream as a legitimate medical treatment, and we may see breakthroughs in clinical studies relating to treatment for mental health disorders. A listed company like Compass Pathways could be well poised
- Voice-based social
As everyone and their mom now has a podcast, voice calls provide respite from back to back video calls, and tools like Echo, Siri and ‘Hey Google’ facilitate our lives, the power of voice has become front and centre. Instagram / Twitter for Voice may be next
- Telemedicine for humans and pets
Visiting the GP and many specialists virtually will become first choice, and there will be a big boom in pet owners embracing remote appointments with their vets
- Still not the year for VR
Although we may see some more use cases of Augmented Reality that adds value, 2021 will be too soon for Virtual Reality. Let’s talk again in 2-3 years
- Social e-commerce comes to the West
The online shopping experience will take a step closer to resembling the real world and will become ‘fun’. It probably won’t be Amazon, but companies like Poshmark seem to be paving the way for social integration in Western e-commerce. Watch out for replications of China’s Pinduoduo model, with team shopping, easy sharing with friends, mini games and big group discounts. We will also see a rise in social-media-first platforms like Pinterest becoming more ‘commerce-y’
- E-sports rising
A handful of top e-sports players will become household names as some of the biggest brands in the world will partner with e-sports clubs and organizers - increasing mainstream exposure. Viewership numbers sky-rocket. Clubs like Fnatic will grow, and companies like Gfinity are well poised to facilitate the growth of the industry.
- Biotech gets hot
Gene editing, mRNA treatments and senescent cell therapies will take mega strides. Existing public companies in these spaces like CRISPR Therapeutics, Editas Medicine, Moderna, BioNTech, and Unity Biotechnology will have huge uplift, and a series of private companies will secure massive investment rounds. This is the year of treatments aiding the body to fight it’s own disease; clearing out cells that accelerate age-related diseases; and repairing broken genes and fixing diseases at source.
- Tech for kids
Children spending more time at home than ever - this obviously opens up the edtech market. But more interesting could be expected rapid growth of children-focused games, secure and private social media for kids, and safeguarding tools. Companies like Roblox, GoBubble and SafeToNet could win in short, medium and long term
- Decentralized Finance
As much as your grandmother is even talking about Bitcoin nowadays, there really is something in it (maybe). But more interesting and important in 2021 will be the advent and appreciation of Ethereum and Ethereum 2.0. There will be a sharp rise in sexy products built on this technology, and the words “smart contract” will drive you crazy by the end of the year
- The tools that build the climate revolution
There will be a steady increase in mega funding rounds to companies providing alternate energy sources. Lithium and rare earth metals will get (nearly) as much airtime as Tesla, as the core tools that form the foundation for the EV movement. Listed companies in this space like Bacanora and MP Materials could soar, while private companies like Orbital Marine may get a lot more attention in alternate energy sourcing
- Big Tech unbundling
2021 might not be the year it finally happens, but it will be close. As we reach a climax in discussions around privacy, and sharing between products of each of the Big Tech giants (see ‘Whatsapp to share data with Facebook uproar’) - we will see steps towards Apple, Google and Facebook having to split up into their constituent parts, preventing sharing of data between each constituent
- Open-sourced equivalents of Big Tech will rule
In line with the decentralized movement, secure and private forms of messaging, search and others will gain mass market momentum. The user is in control. Expect to see the usage surge of Signal in messaging, and Ecosia in search
- The future of work is not offices
A beautiful middle ground between rigid offices and working from home will be the future. 2021 will be another transition year in this. The big winner? Airbnb. Their rentals will start to become more having a “work-cation” abroad than a holiday, and by 2030, I expect Airbnb, or a similar entity to be the biggest ‘office’ provider in the world
- Private businesses get liquidity
Gone are the days where Exit and IPO are the only forms of liquidity for early stage investors. Equity crowdfunding will take a major step towards offering sale of shares - Crowdcube’s Direct Company Offering as an example, and there will be a rise in platforms which sole purpose is for pre-seed, seed, and Series A investors to be able to exit in that awkward phase where a company is 2-3 years away from going public. Buy your shares in that startup, you may get liquidity sooner than you thought (not investment advice, capital at risk, etc etc)
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