A Case for Ignorance

(Narrated by Eleven Labs' Text to Speech AI)

In his book 'Psychology of Money', Morgan Housel described how his daughter has a few dozen mental models of the world, and she'll always have a crystal clear explanation of any experience by fitting it directly into that mental model: "dad isn't playing with me, I wanted him to play with me, I'm now sad."

She doesn't ponder the why or the how, she tells herself a coherent story based on what she does know, and that's enough.

That got me thinking (terrible idea, I know).

As we get older, we refine the narrative. It becomes complex, as it should, as we gather more information to inform the narrative. Our analysis of the how and why of each experience informs our thoughts, decisions, actions.

We all form our perceptions of reality based on our mental models. On patterns. Reference points. Wanting to replicate or avoid the emotions resulting from lived experiences.

We get wiser, as the spiderweb of our pattern recognition becomes more complex and mature.

We learn to appreciate nuance. That is beautiful. We need to evolve our views based on new information. Strong beliefs loosely held. If we didn't, we'd all be insufferable stubborn closed minded bigots.

But there's a case for being the naive 4 year old.

It would be foolish to start a business if you consider the >90% chance of failure.
It would be foolish to go on a date if you consider all the reasons why there may not be a connection.
It would be foolish to invest in a startup if you consider the chances of that being the one that changes the world forever.
It would be foolish to make a cold call if you consider how much the person on the other end disdains being cold called.

But, every now and then, we need to be foolish, to be naive, to be mesmerized by the opportunity in front of us.

The world moves forward from these bold moves underlined by a beautiful blissful ignorance.

Credit to all the founders in my network who have been, are being, and will be "foolish", and seek to improve the world.

The big bet

(Narrated by Eleven Labs' Text to Speech AI)

Choose a distinct path.

Make yourself undeniable.
Follow with conviction.

He's not a household name, but he's the man that led the round in the single best investment in history.

He's been a catalyst in one of the biggest companies on the planet - the third biggest gaming company in the world, a company that owns a platform with 1.3 billion users.

I'm talking about David Wallerstein. 

In 2000, he identified a trend in internet cafe behaviour in Zhengzhou China - People would spend 4 hours+ per day using a web chat platform (QQ). He would see the same faces, different faces, trance-like behaviour - absolute total immersion.

He could see a movement forming. He built enough conviction to fight for an opportunity to invest in the company who owned it - Tencent.

As an American who went to high school in Japan, who taught himself Mandarin, with an intense interest in Chinese culture and belief that China could be a global superpower, he was uniquely positioned to act on his conviction.

He positioned himself in a way that he had to be listened to.

He made himself undeniable.

He couldn't invest on a grand scale with his own money, so he consulted for Naspers, convinced them to invest in Tencent off the back of this (for a 46.5% stake), and convinced Tencent to accept the investment.

The year was 2001.

This is now known semi-unanimously as the single best investment of all time.

Ofcourse the story here is Tencent, and there's a million things to be said about their fascinating business model, Pony Ma, and how they are central to not only Chinese culture but a growing global superpower. That's a discussion for another time.

As a South African, what really grips me here is the role of a south African business in this. That a South African business bought a 46.5% stake in this Chinese company. How random that appears, and how David Wallerstein was the catalyst behind it. Wallerstein went on to join Tencent directly after the Naspers investment, and was key to their growth in building a "spiderweb" of products that facilitate human connection in the digital world. I guess you could say it worked out.

If Wallerstein didn't convince Naspers to invest in Tencent, would they have grown to what they are today? As the third biggest gaming company in the world, would gaming be as big as it is today? With WeChat as a platform for so many other Chinese companies, would the Chinese economy be as big as it is today?

Bold decisions and investments like this can shape our culture. Shape our world.

Nasper invested $32 million in 2001.
That investment is worth approximately $115Bn in 2024.
Approximately 3500x increase in value.

Perhaps the best investment in history.

Besides an obscene amount of luck, there's something we can try extract from this.

David Wallerstein is an example of -
Choose a distinct path.
Make yourself undeniable.
Follow with conviction.